By Paulina Phan, Senior Editorial Contributor
By almost every measure of movement, Americans continued to head toward Florida and Tennessee through 2025 and into 2026. By most measures of price, the boom that greeted them has split in two. Miami home values are still rising modestly. Tampa values are falling. Inventory in both states has climbed back above pre-pandemic levels, and Florida homeowners pay the highest insurance premiums in the country. The result is a regional market where demand, by the migration data, remains durable, while the economics of buying have become considerably harder than the headline inflow numbers suggest.
Migration, Measured Three Ways
The Census Bureau’s Vintage 2025 population estimates show Florida adding 196,980 residents in 2025, second only to Texas at 391,243, while South Carolina posted the fastest growth rate at 1.5 percent. The South as a region grew 0.9 percent, more than four times the Northeast’s 0.2 percent.
U-Haul’s 2025 Growth Index, built from more than 2.5 million one-way truck, trailer and container transactions, ranked Texas first among growth states, Florida second, North Carolina third and Tennessee fourth. California ranked last, in fiftieth place, for the sixth consecutive year. United Van Lines struck a more tempered note in its 2025 National Movers Study: for the first time in recent years, the company classified both Florida and Texas as balanced, meaning inbound and outbound household moves were roughly equal, a sign the pandemic era surge has moderated even if it has not reversed.
Forward looking indicators point the same direction. Redfin reported that in the first quarter of 2026, Florida recorded a net inflow of 46,664 users searching for homes from out of state, more than Arizona, South Carolina and Tennessee combined. Orlando led all metropolitan areas with a net inflow of 6,914, followed by North Port, Miami and Cape Coral. Local agents told Redfin they are seeing a growing share of engineers and technology workers from Seattle and California arriving on Florida’s Space Coast for jobs tied to SpaceX and Blue Origin operations. Redfin’s figures track search behavior rather than completed moves, but they indicate where buyer interest is forming.
Prices Diverge by Metro
The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller indices, the repeat sales benchmark for United States home prices, show how uneven the landing has been. In data through June 2026, Miami prices rose 2.27 percent from a year earlier, while Tampa prices fell 1.19 percent. The national index rose 1.52 percent and the 20-city composite rose 2.10 percent over the same period, which means Miami modestly outperformed the country while Tampa trailed it.
Tampa’s decline is not new, but its pace has narrowed. The Tampa index posted 13 consecutive months of year over year declines through November 2025, when prices were down 3.9 percent, the steepest drop in the 20-city composite at the time. By the June 2026 reading, the annual decline had eased to 1.19 percent. Analysts at ResiClub, which tracks listing data, report that Florida’s inventory correction, the sharpest in the country over the past two and a half years, particularly in the southwest of the state, is no longer intensifying in most markets. At the end of August 2026, both Florida and Tennessee were among 18 states where active listings exceeded 2019 pre-pandemic levels, giving buyers in both states more choice and less urgency than at any point since 2019.
Nashville is not among the 20 cities in the Case-Shiller composite. By Zillow’s typical value measure, Tennessee’s statewide typical home value sits near $336,000, with Nashville above the state figure and smaller metros such as Knoxville and Chattanooga below it. In Florida, Redfin put the typical Orlando home near $400,000 in early 2026, roughly half the median in New York, the most common origin market for its inbound buyers.
What Analysts Say Draws Movers
Survey and industry analyses consistently cite the same cluster of factors. Neither Florida nor Tennessee levies a state income tax on wages; Tennessee completed the phaseout of its tax on interest and dividend income in 2021. Both states offer lower typical home prices than the coastal markets many movers leave, milder winters, and, according to housing analysts, permitting and land use regimes that allowed builders to add supply at a scale that coastal states did not match during the pandemic boom. That construction wave is a double edged factor in the data: it absorbed much of the migration demand, and it is also a principal reason inventory has normalized faster in the Sun Belt and price growth has cooled.
The Headwinds Are Now Part of the Story
Insurance is Florida’s most frequently cited counterweight. An Insurify analysis puts the state’s average homeowners premium at $8,292 a year in 2026, the highest in the nation and 181 percent above the national average of roughly $2,950. The state backed insurer of last resort, Citizens Property Insurance, has begun to offer some relief, cutting its average rate by 8.7 percent effective June 1, 2026 after shrinking from a peak of about 1.4 million policies, but rating agencies caution that the market’s progress has yet to be tested by a severe hurricane season. Tennessee, by comparison, averages roughly $2,000 a year in homeowners premiums in cost of living compilations, one reason analysts describe it as offering a similar tax profile without the coastal insurance burden.
Redfin’s 2026 outlook projected further cooling in Florida, Texas and Tennessee as pandemic era demand normalizes against elevated supply, and the brokerage has reported frequent list price cuts by Florida sellers. The macroeconomic backdrop adds friction everywhere: consumer prices rose 3.4 percent in the year through August 2026, with shelter costs up 3.0 percent, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the Federal Reserve raised interest rates in September, keeping borrowing costs elevated. The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index fell to 48.1 in September, down from 51.7 in August and 12.7 percent below its level a year earlier.
FAQ
Are home prices rising or falling in Florida? It depends on the metro. Case-Shiller data through June 2026 show Miami up 2.27 percent year over year and Tampa down 1.19 percent, against a national gain of 1.52 percent.
Are people still moving to Florida and Tennessee? Yes, by the available measures. The Census Bureau counted nearly 197,000 net new Florida residents in 2025, U-Haul ranked Florida second and Tennessee fourth for net one-way moves in 2025, and Redfin recorded the largest out of state buyer inflow in Florida in the first quarter of 2026. United Van Lines, however, now classifies Florida moves as balanced, suggesting the pace has moderated.
What is the biggest cost headwind for Florida buyers? Insurance. At an average of $8,292 a year, Florida homeowners premiums are the highest in the country, according to Insurify, and are frequently cited by brokers and analysts alongside rising condominium costs.
Sources and Methodology
Price data are from the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller indices (S&P Dow Jones Indices, data through June 2026), which track repeat sales of single family homes; Nashville is not a component city. Migration figures are from the Census Bureau’s Vintage 2025 state population estimates, the U-Haul Growth Index for 2025, the United Van Lines 2025 National Movers Study and Redfin migration reports for the first quarter of 2026. U-Haul and moving company figures are proxies based on their own customer activity, and Redfin inflow figures measure home searchers, not completed relocations. Insurance figures are from a 2026 Insurify analysis and Citizens Property Insurance rate filings. Inflation and sentiment figures are from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (August 2026 CPI, released September 11, 2026) and the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers (final September 2026 reading, released September 25, 2026).